Future of Facebook

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One thing I’ve noticed with trends and fads is that looking back on them, we usually say “What were we thinking?” With the passage of enough time, it can be difficult to remember what motivated us at the time. The reason(s) why something that was so important changed into the commonplace and then, a drudgery or worse, not cool anymore becomes lost over time. We’ve all seen examples of this and the same progression will occur with Social Media. I may be ahead of the curve with this, but there will come a time when Facebook will no longer be required but, instead, passe. Will you remember where you were at this pivotal future moment? It will happen at some point. Certainly not a question of if, but of when. When it does, will that moment become an indelible memory for you? One social media statistic I read recently was that if Facebook was a country, it would be the 3rd largest in the world with over 500M users, or, “netizens”. Will they experience the same future experiences and logoff Facebook never to return?

Another thing I’ve noticed is that trends based solely on technology have a finite lifetime. We tend to stay with something even when it’s past its’ prime. Comfort, resistant to change, the migratin effort and learning curve involved all play a part of staying with status quo, the familiar. We accept trade-offs and shortcomings; we settle. Until, of course, a game changer comes along. The bright, new shiny bauble that excites you, entices you, teases you — you have to have it.

As someone once said “Technology is cyclical”, there will be another widget/new thing to displace Facebook and occupy our time. It will have to be better, more convenient, easier. Also, it will need to make money. At some point in the (not so distant) future, there will be a decisive moment when many of us will say “Facebook, I haven’t used it in months. Who does that anymore?”

What lifetime do you think Facebook will have? Will we still use it in 5 years? 3 years? Next year? Til then, see you on Facebook.